Yield forecasts represent the predicted quantity of grain produced per acre for a selected crop within a draw area. These forecasts are generated using DTN proprietary models that incorporate historical crop yield data, weather information, soil temperature and moisture, satellite based vegetation indices, and USDA crop condition reports.
Yield forecasts are released at several points during the year:
- Before the season begins, trendline based yield predictions are created and made available in March.
- As the growing season progresses, yield forecasts are updated using the DTN models and the most current available data. These in season updates follow specific release cycles by crop. Corn, soybeans, and sorghum are updated beginning August fifteenth and continue monthly from August through November. Winter wheat and durum wheat are updated beginning May fifteenth and continue monthly from May through August. Spring wheat updates begin June fifteenth and continue monthly from June through August.
- After the season ends, post season estimates are produced using both NASS and RMA data. Pseudo final estimates are based on statistically adjusted NASS data released in March, while final yield estimates come from RMA final yield figures that are typically released from late June through early July.